Zimbabwe President Robert Mugabe, who retains tight control over the country, appears to be giving the country's foreign-controlled mining companies some hope of respite from the indigenisation law that is forcing them to hand over 51% of their operations to local ownership. Some have already acceded - notably Rio Tinto with its diamond operation at Murowa - while others, particularly the country's platinum miners, seem to be prevaricating as long as possible in the hope that things may change and the law repealed or softened under a future post-Mugabe government. But with increasing pressure being put on them to accede, time is running out.
Currently Mugabe's ZANU/PF party is in an uneasy coalition government with Morgan Tsvangirai's MDC (Movement for Democratic Change) after heavily disputed elections in 2008 which most observers reckon was won comfortably by the MDC - but in effect Mugabe as President retains control of the country and its major policies - and importantly has the backing of the army. Tsvangirai, as Prime Minister, has stated that he thinks the country's indigenisation policy is strangling any recovery as overseas companies, which might pour money into the development of the country's mining industry in particular, are seen to be holding off on inward investment hoping for a change of government and the law.
But things in Zimbabwe are never that simple. Mugabe's rumoured severe cancer - if correct - could lead to his death, or standing down sooner rather than later. Reuters notes a Wikileaks-released U.S. diplomatic cable from 2008 as saying Mugabe has prostate cancer that has spread to other organs and was urged by his physician to step down in 2008 and Zimbabwe's Central Bank Governor as saying at the time that the cancer could lead to Mugabe's death in 3-5 years. But any reports of Mugabe's ill-health are heavily suppressed within the country.
Should Mugabe stand down, or die in office, there is no obvious ZANU/PF candidate to take over such has been Mugabe's dominance as the party's figurehead. Any free and fair election held without Mugabe as ZANU/PF leader would likely lead to an MDC mandate, but recent history suggests that any such electoral process would be far from free and fair with assumed ZANU/PF intimidation and ballot rigging, particularly if the party is seen as possibly losing power altogether. There are too many vested interests at stake. It is thought ZANU/PF would not give up easily and there might also be the distinct possibility of the army stepping in and taking over in a military coup. Too many of the ZANU/PF and army hierarchy have too much to lose in a total change of government.
But what of the country's mining sector? Zimbabwe has the world's second largest platinum resources with its platinum mining sector dominated by the big South African pgm mining companies and it is their holding off on expansion plans which is adversely affecting the Zimbabwean recovery in particular. Zimbabwe used to have a significant gold mining industry, but this has diminished drastically through lack of investment and, at one stage severe payment difficulties from the country's Central Bank which at the time, by law, had to purchase all the gold output. There is little doubt that a perceived stable, mining friendly, government would lead to a huge upsurge in the exploration and exploitation in the gold mining sector.
Zimbabwe is also host to what is perhaps the world's most prolific diamond field at Marange where mining appears to be controlled by the army with the original companies with rights to the area forced out by the government. It is widely believed that there is substantial forced labour involved in the mining there which had been the scene of huge artisanal mining activity and that the proceeds are almost entirely nowadays believed to be for the benefit of senior army officers and ZANU/PF executives.
But that is not all - the country has substantial resources of all kinds of metals and minerals, most of which are not being exploited fully or even partly, because of the political and economic situation. It also has huge agricultural potential and again this has mostly been run down through the original efficient farmers being driven off the land and much falling into ruin and disuse. Zimbabwe, post Mugabe, could become one of Africa's richest nations assuming a positive change in government can be achieved, but the likelihood of this actually happening would still seem to be remote.
